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Research

Effectiveness of public health interventions in reducing the prevalence of Opisthorchis viverrini: a protocol for systematic review and network meta-analysis

The carcinogenic liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini is a major public health problem in the Mekong basin region. The liver flukes can induce cholangiocarcinoma, a bile duct cancer that causes a significant burden of mortality and economic loss. Various public health interventions have been conducted to reduce opisthorchiasis but the prevalence of O. viverrini remains high in endemic regions.

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Spatio-temporal patterns of childhood pneumonia in Bhutan: a Bayesian analysis

Pneumonia is one of the top 10 diseases by morbidity in Bhutan. This study aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends and risk factors of childhood pneumonia in Bhutan.

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Methods for modelling excess mortality across England during the COVID-19 pandemic

Excess mortality is an important measure of the scale of the coronavirus-2019 pandemic. It includes both deaths caused directly by the pandemic, and deaths caused by the unintended consequences of containment such as delays to accessing care or postponements of healthcare provision in the population. In 2020 and 2021, in England, multiple groups have produced measures of excess mortality during the pandemic.

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Clinical predictors of severe dengue: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Severe dengue is a life-threatening complication; rapid identification of these cases, followed by adequate management is crucial to improve the clinical prognosis. Therefore, this study aimed to identify risk factors and predictors of severe dengue.

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An observational study of antibody responses to a primary or subsequent pertussis booster vaccination in Australian healthcare workers

Adult pertussis vaccination is increasingly recommended to control pertussis in the community. However, there is little data on the duration and kinetics of immunity to pertussis boosters in adults. We compared IgG responses to vaccination with a tetanus, low-dose diphtheria, low-dose acellular pertussis (Tdap) booster at 1 week, 1 month and 1 year post-vaccination in whole-cell (wP)-primed Australian paediatric healthcare workers who had received an adult Tdap booster 5-12 years previously, to those who received their first Tdap booster.

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Formative evaluation of a community-based approach to reduce the incidence of Strep A infections and acute rheumatic fever

We explore the acceptability of a novel, outreached-based approach to improve primary and primordial prevention of Strep A skin sores, sore throats and acute rheumatic fever in remote Aboriginal communities. A comprehensive prevention program delivered by trained Aboriginal Community Workers was evaluated using approximately fortnightly household surveys about health and housing and clinical records.

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Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings

Developing new methods for modelling infectious diseases outbreaks is important for monitoring transmission and developing policy. In this paper we propose using semi-mechanistic Hawkes Processes for modelling malaria transmission in near-elimination settings. Hawkes Processes are well founded mathematical methods that enable us to combine the benefits of both statistical and mechanistic models to recreate and forecast disease transmission beyond just malaria outbreak scenarios.

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The incidence of sore throat and group A streptococcal pharyngitis in children at high risk of developing acute rheumatic fever: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Group A streptococcal (GAS) pharyngitis has traditionally been considered the sole precursor of acute rheumatic fever (ARF). Evidence from Australia, however, suggests that GAS skin infections may contribute to the pathogenesis of ARF.

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A model of population dynamics with complex household structure and mobility: implications for transmission and control of communicable diseases

Households are known to be high-risk locations for the transmission of communicable diseases. Numerous modelling studies have demonstrated the important role of households in sustaining both communicable diseases outbreaks and endemic transmission, and as the focus for control efforts. However, these studies typically assume that households are associated with a single dwelling and have static membership.

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Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysis

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the burden of malaria in Africa since 2000, but those gains could be jeopardised if the COVID-19 pandemic affects the availability of key malaria control interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate plausible effects on malaria incidence and mortality under different levels of disruption to malaria control.