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SARS-CoV-2 reinfections and subsequent risk of hospital-diagnosed post-acute sequelae in Denmark (2020–2022): a nationwide cohort study

Post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC), or long COVID, are a public health concern. While most recover from SARS-CoV-2 infections within weeks, some experience persistent symptoms. Here, we quantified the association between repeated SARS-CoV-2 infections and the risk of hospital-diagnosed PASC.

A modular approach to forecasting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy

Monitoring the number of COVID-19 patients in hospital beds was a critical component of Australia's real-time surveillance strategy for the disease. From 2021 to 2023, we produced short-term forecasts of bed occupancy to support public health decision-making. 

The global, regional, and national burden of cancer, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050.

Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria, 2000-22: a spatial and temporal modelling study

Malaria remains a leading cause of illness and death globally, with countries in sub-Saharan Africa bearing a disproportionate burden. Global high-resolution maps of malaria prevalence, incidence, and mortality are crucial for tracking spatially heterogeneous progress against the disease and to inform strategic malaria control efforts. We present the latest such maps, the first since 2019, which cover the years 2000–22. The maps are accompanied by administrative-level summaries and include estimated COVID-19 pandemic-related impacts on malaria burden. 

Mapping tuberculosis prevalence in Africa using a Bayesian geospatial analysis

Worldwide, tuberculosis (TB) remains the leading cause of death from infectious diseases. Africa is the second most-affected region, accounting for a quarter of the global TB burden, but there is limited evidence whether there is subnational variation of TB prevalence across the continent. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate sub-national and local TB prevalence across Africa.

Understanding Malaria Transmission and Control within and Between Regions in Zambia Using a Socio-Spatial Determinants of Health Framework

Differential exposure and effect of malaria results from blends of biophysical, geospatial, and social determinants of health (SDoH). Likewise, effective policies and programmatic interventions against malaria must consider the complex interaction of social and spatial factors, while comprehensive health promotion approaches must simultaneously tackle SDoH and the ecological dimensions that drive malaria. 

Mapping residual malaria transmission in Vietnam

Vietnam, as one of the countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion, has committed to eliminating all malaria by 2030. Declining case numbers highlight the country's progress, but challenges including imported cases and pockets of residual transmission remain. To successfully eliminate malaria and to prevent reintroduction of malaria transmission, geostatistical modelling of vulnerability (importation rate) and receptivity (quantified by the reproduction number) of malaria is critical.

Ethnicity and anthropometric deficits in children: A cross-sectional analysis of national survey data from 18 countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Child anthropometric deficits remain a major public health problem in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and are a key target of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs recommend disaggregation of health indicators by ethnic group. However, few studies have assessed how ethnicity is associated with anthropometric deficits across SSA.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. 

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support.